Validity Of Marshall - Lerner Condition And J Type Hypothesis: A Comparative Analysis for Different Inrome Groups
Marshall - Lerner Koşulu ve J Eğrisi Hipotezinin Geçerliliği: Farklı Gelir Gurubu Ülkeleri İçin Karşılaştırmalı Bir Analiz

Author : Hüseyin USLU
Number of pages : 550-561

Abstract

Increasing economic growth and development by achieving income from foreign trade is a priority target of all countries. However, countries do not always benefit from foreign trade, they also can give foreign trade deficit. Foreign trade deficit, which is the main reason for the current account deficit, carries a risk that countries would be dragged into economic crisis. For this reason, it is useful to analyze the determinants and sustainability of countries' foreign trade balances frequently. In this study, the effects of real effective exchange rate, domestic national income and world national income on foreign trade balance are examined by panel data analysis using data from 80 countries in different income groups for 1960-2016 periods. As a result of analysis; it has been determined that Marshall-Lerner condition is valid at countries other than high - income countries, so exchange rate can be used as a policy instrument to improve foreign trade balance in these countries. The J-curve hypothesis is found to be weakly valid only in high-income countries.

Keywords

Marshall-Lerner Condition, J Hypothesis, External Trade Balance, Reel Effective Exchange Rate.

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