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Abstract


Asymmetric Relationship between Crude Oil and Retail Gasoline Prices in Turkey
There is a common belief that gasoline prices are more responsive to crude oil price increases than decreases. The aim of this study is to investigate the reaction of gasoline prices in the retail stage of the distribution chain to price changes in crude oil on a daily basis in Turkey for the period 24.03.2005 and 26.06.2015 by conducting the long-term and the short-term asymmetry tests. Firstly, the stationarity and linearity of the price series were examined, and nonlinear structures in the series were detected. Then, whether there exists a cointegration between them was tested by the two-stage Engle-Granger linear cointegration test and four different nonlinear (threshold autoregressive-TAR, momentum threshold autoregressive-MTAR and their consistent counterparts) cointegration tests. The evidence for long-term asymmetry was found between the crude oil and the retail gasoline prices and it was determined that the increases in the crude oil prices were transmitted to the retail gasoline prices about four times faster than decreases. The results of the threshold error correction model used to analyze the short-term asymmetry showed that there was no pattern asymmetry between the crude oil and the retail gasoline prices.

Keywords
Asymmetric Price Transmission, Threshold Cointegration, Asymmetric Adjustment


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