Determining the Policy Interest Rates of the Central Bank Within Framework Taylor Rule: Stochastic Trend Approach
Taylor Kuralı Kapsamında Merkez Bankası Politika Faiz Oranlarının Belirlenmesi: Stokastik Trend Yaklaşımı

Author : Harun BAL -& Banu TANRIÖVER & Esma ERDOĞAN
Number of pages : 95-106

Abstract

It is important that the Central Bank determines policy interest rates at what level in terms of the increase in foreign exchange inflows and not decreasing the investment expenditures in other words, ensuring the balance between the financial and real sector. For this reason, the purpose of this study is to test at which level the Central Bank of Turkey should determine the policy interest rates for 2001:08-2016:06 period economy of Turkey with the help of Taylor (1993) Rule. For this purpose, the inflation gap, the output gap and the exchange rate gap variables, which exist in Taylor’s Equation, were obtained by using the Beveridge and Nelson (1981), which is a stochastic Degradation Technique, and which considers the permanent shocks under the assumption of Outward-Oriented Economy Hypothesis. With the help of the empirical findings, it is also aimed to determine the effects of the abovementioned variables on policy interest rates; and in this context, to reveal the level of the policy interest rates of the Central Bank of Turkey, and to develop policy recommendations for this purpose.

Keywords

Policy Interest Rate, Inflation Deficit, Output Deficit, Exchange Rate Deficit and Permanent Shocks

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