The Causal Relationship Between Stock Prices And Exchange Rates: Panel Granger Causality Evidence From Emerging And Developed Markets
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Abstract
The financial literature has paid increasing attention to the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. This study examines the relationship between these variables using a newly developed heterogeneous panel Granger causality test robust to cross-sectional dependency for 21 emerging and 22 developed markets. Panel results show a unidirectional causality relationship between the variables for both emerging and developed markets, running from stock prices to exchange rates. Additionally, in most cases, country-specific results also support the panel results, indicating the same unidirectional causality for 13 emerging markets (approximately 62 %) and 15 developed markets (approximately 68 %). The opposite link is found for only one emerging market. As such, we conclude that the stock-oriented model is valid for most of emerging and developed markets. That is, in both emerging and developed markets, a change in stock markets causes a change in exchange rate markets in most cases. These findings have important policy implications.
Keywords
Abstract
The financial literature has paid increasing attention to the relationship between stock prices and exchange rates. This study examines the relationship between these variables using a newly developed heterogeneous panel Granger causality test robust to cross-sectional dependency for 21 emerging and 22 developed markets. Panel results show a unidirectional causality relationship between the variables for both emerging and developed markets, running from stock prices to exchange rates. Additionally, in most cases, country-specific results also support the panel results, indicating the same unidirectional causality for 13 emerging markets (approximately 62 %) and 15 developed markets (approximately 68 %). The opposite link is found for only one emerging market. As such, we conclude that the stock-oriented model is valid for most of emerging and developed markets. That is, in both emerging and developed markets, a change in stock markets causes a change in exchange rate markets in most cases. These findings have important policy implications.
