Author :
Abstract
2019 yılında Çin’in Wuhan şehrinde ortaya çıkan Covid-19 virüsü kısa zamanda tüm dünyaya yayılmıştır. Söz konusu salgın tüm ülkelerin makro iktisadi performansını derinden etkilemiştir. Covid-19’un iktisadi etkileri sektörler ve ülkeler arasında önemli derecede hissedilmektedir. Pandemi sağlık başta olmak üzere hayatımızın tüm alanlarını olumsuz etkilemeye devam etmektedir. Alınan tedbirlere rağmen Covid-19 dünya ekonomilerini ciddi bir durgunluğa sürüklemeye devam etmektedir. Bu çalışmada Covid-19 döneminde Kırgızistan’da döviz kurunda meydana gelen değişimlerin iktisadi büyüme üzerindeki etkisini incelemektir. Bu amaç doğrultusunda söz konusu ülkenin 2018-2020 dönemine ait aylık verileri kullanılmıştır. İktisadi büyüme ve döviz kuru değişkenleri Kırgız Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası veri tabanından temin edilmiştir. Ampirik uygulamada Pesaran ve Shin (1999) ve Pesaran ve diğerleri (2001) tarafından geliştirilen ARDL (Gecikmesi Dağıtılmış Otoregresif Model) sınır testi yaklaşımı uygulanmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular ışığında Kırgızistan’da Covid-19 döneminde döviz kurunun iktisadi büyümeyi önemli düzeyde etkilediği söylenebilir. Araştırma bulgularının, Covid-19 döneminde döviz kurunun ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerine ışık tutacağı düşünülmektedir.
Keywords
Abstract
The Covid-19 virus, which emerged in 2019 in Wuhan, China, has spread all over the world in a short time. The pandemic has deeply affected the macroeconomic performance of all countries. The economic effects of Covid-19 are felt significantly between sectors and countries. The pandemic continues to negatively affect all areas of our lives, especially health. Despite the measures taken, it continues to drag the world economies into a serious recession. This study aims to examine the impact of exchange rate on economic growth during the Covid-19 period in Kyrgyzstan. For this purpose, monthly data of Kyrgyzstan for the period 2018-2020 were utilized. Economic growth and exchange rate variables were obtained from the database of the Central Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic. In the empirical analysis, ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) bound test approach developed by Pesaran and Shin (1999) and Pesaran et al. (2001) was applied. In the light of the obtained findings, it can be said that the exchange rate significantly affected economic growth in Kyrgyzstan during the Covid-19 period. Research findings are thought to shed light on the effects of exchange rate on economic growth during Covid-19 period.
Keywords
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