Relationship Between Current Account Balance and Economic Growth: Example of the Republic of Tajikistan
Cari İşlemler Dengesi ve Ekonomik Büyüme Arasındaki İlişki: Tacikistan Cumhuriyeti Örneği

Author : Hakan ACET -Emomjafar ASHUROV
Number of pages : 266-279


The current account deficit is an important macroeconomic problem for the economy of Tajikistan, as in many developed and developing countries. High current account deficit has been experienced in the economy of Tajikistan since 2005. When the literature on economy of Tajikistan is examined, the studies are covered only by a theoretical view. Therefore, the aim of this study is to contribute to the literature by showing empirical analysis whether there is a relationship between current account balance (CAB) and economic growth (GDP). For the analysis made in this study, 2005Q1-2019Q4 quarter data are used. The data were taken from the World Bank and the Central Bank of the Republic of Tajikistan. Unit root test was applied to determine whether our first variables were stationary. According to the analysis result; one variable is stationary at the first difference, and the other is stationary at the level. For this reason, ARDL model was considered more suitable for analysis. Covariance test was used to indicate the relationship between the variables. According to the empirical findings, there is a negative relationship between the variables. At the same time, there is a long run relationship between the variables according to the ARDL limit test results. Apart from this, tests such as Correlogram, Histogram normality test and ARCH were applied in this study.


ARDL model, CAB, GDP, Tajikistan, World Bank

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