Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models Petrol Piyasasında Oynaklığın Öngörülmesi: Garch Modelleri İle Bir Uygulama
Author : Samet EVCİ
-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN
Number of pages : 122-128
Abstract
The aim of this study is to estimate the volatility of oil prices and to determine the appropriate model and distribution for forecasting oil market volatility. For this purpose, the USD / barrel daily return series on Brent oil for the time periods from January 02, 2007 to December 31, 2016 are used in the study. To model oil price volatility, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models based on normal and student-t distributions and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, which is one of the asymmetric GARCH models that demonstrate the influence of positive and negative news on volatility are used. Error statistics are used to determine the most appropriate model between symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. Analysis results suggest that GARCH (1,1) model based on student-t distribution performs better than symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models based on normal distribution in modelling the volatility of brent oil market
@article{2017,title={Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models},abstractNode={
The aim of this study is to estimate the volatility of oil prices and to determine the appropriate model and distribution for forecasting oil market volatility. For this purpose, the USD / barrel daily return series on Brent oil for the time periods from January 02, 2007 to December 31, 2016 are used in the study. To model oil price volatility, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models based on normal and student-t distributions and exponential GARCH (EGARCH) model, which is one of the asymmetric GARCH models that demonstrate the influence of positive and negative news on volatility are used. Error statistics are used to determine the most appropriate model between symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models. Analysis results suggest that GARCH (1,1) model based on student-t distribution performs better than symmetric and asymmetric GARCH models based on normal distribution in modelling the volatility of brent oil market
},author={Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN},year={2017},journal={Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies)}}
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN . 2017 . Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models . Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies).DOI:10.23929/javs.533
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN.(2017).Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models.Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies)
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN,"Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models" , Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies) (2017)
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN . 2017 . Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models . Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies) . 2017. DOI:10.23929/javs.533
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN .Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models. Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies) (2017)
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN .Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models. Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies) (2017)
Format:
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN. (2017) .Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies)
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN . Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models . Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies) . 2017 doi:10.23929/javs.533
Samet EVCİ-& Mehmet CİHANGİR & Erhan ERGİN."Forecasting Volatility Of Crude Oil Market: An Application With Garch Models",Journal of Academic Value Studies (JAVStudies)(2017)